Friends Like These: American Allies in Europe

Charles W. King

The United States has an extensive history of intervening in allied nations who’s democratic institutions who appear precarious, not only during the Cold War but before World War One as well. Throughout the Cold War the U.S. prized regional stability, continuity, and anti-communism over democracy and liberty throughout the Third World. In the First World it did not resort to the military or covert interventions. However, Operation Gladio trained European right-wings in Italy, France, and others in the tactics of terrorism and resistance in the event Communists won elections in Western Europe. The twentieth century demonstrates how nations have a vested interested in the tenor of the domestic politics of other nations.

An increasingly unstable European political scene is raising the question of how and if the United States should attempt to influence the domestic politics of its allies. Europe in general is turning rightward. Poland, Hungary, and other European countries are increasingly illiberal and eschewing institutions considered to be essential to healthy democracies. The rule of Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland and Viktor Orban’s Fidesz in Hungary are not the only domestic situations which American and European leaders have to consider when deciding how and where to exert influence on their neighbors. The disregard of Mariano Rajoy’s central government in Spain to Catalonia’s grievances led Catalan politicians to believe that their only resort was an unsanctioned independence referendum. The subsequent response by the Spanish government has been roundly criticized as downright fascist, drawing directly historical analogies to Franco’s dictatorship. Unlike Iran, Guatemala, Chile, or Vietnam the United States is not in a position to invade or even arrange a coup in Poland, Hungary, Spain, or any other European ally. This however does not mean that the United States cannot exert influence and should not, either overtly by explicit endorsement and critiques or through subtler measures like trade and foreign aid.

However, these center-right and right-wing governments in Europe are not the only reasons for concern for European stability. The election of President Emanuel Macron has not been the dramatic break with previous French administrations that many had hoped for, but Macron’s France is actively taking on leadership in Europe that had atrophied. However, Macron was counting on a strong ally in Angela Merkel’s Germany, and Merkel and her Christian Democrats (CDU) are currently in the midst of a flailing attempt to form a coalition government after the Social Democratic Party (SPD) their allies of the last eight years left chose not to renew their coalition after a disastrous showing in recent elections. This leaves Merkel with a raft of options that range from unlikely to unthinkable.

The expected ‘Jamaica Coalition’ of the CDU, Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP) fell apart when the FDP abruptly walked away. The parliamentary math says that the CDU could form a majority with the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), but the two parties ran on diametrically opposed platforms. A new election could give AfD even more seats in the Bundestag, a first for a far right party. Europe faces a number of important issues in the coming months, issues like immigration and central banking which Germany has been an important voice in. The world can afford if the likes of Belgium or the Netherlands take months or even years to form coalition governments, it cannot afford Germany to be without a government. The United States invested considerable capital, political, military, and financial, ensuring that Germany would be a member of N.A.T.O., the European Coal and Steel Community, and eventually be reunited, and a strong and stable Germany is key to American interests in Europe. The United States can and should consider how its diplomatic and trade relationship with Germany has led to the current political climate and what it can do to ensure that Germany is the partner in Europe it needs.